Is price inflation causing consumers to visit restaurants less?

Inflation is starting to impact operating costs, so we set out to determine whether increased prices are causing a decline in transaction volume at restaurants. 

To test this hypothesis, below we plotted check size on the X axis and transaction volume on the Y axis. 

The hypothesized relationship doesn’t hold true - if average check size is an indicator of price increases, then higher prices at individual restaurants are not a powerful predictor of declining transaction volume (so far).

Even Chipotle, who recently announced a price increase across the board, has seen a net increase in transaction volume.

It’s likely that there are more complex factors at play, especially Covid-related ones, that are having a larger impact on transaction volume than inflation is.

To view the full analysis, watch the webinar recording below and download the slides here.